Below is a briefing from the House of Commons Library on the scale of any movement of pupils from private to state schools following the introduction of VAT on private schools.

Independent Briefing
As you are aware from 1 January 2025 VAT was introduced on private school fees in the UK.

The number of children attending different types of schools (such as private or state-funded schools) is published as of January each year for England and Wales. Data is published as of September for Scotland and October for Northern Ireland.

This means that data since the policy was introduced is not available for Scotland or Northern Ireland. We can compare the number of pupils attending private schools in England and Wales in January 2025 (when the policy change occurred) compared with previous years but it would not be particularly helpful because we would need to wait several years for the full effect of the policy to take place. This is because it is possible that any impacts could occur particularly at transition points (such as the move from primary to secondary education) rather than being distributed evenly throughout year groups.

The House of Commons Library briefing VAT on private school fees summarises this data for England in section 4.1 as well as providing further background information which might be of interest.

In response to a PQ in July 2025 which asked for the number of pupils which left the independent sector due to the introduction of VAT on school fees the Government stated “Evidence so far, including the Department for Education’s annual school census, shows pupils numbers remain firmly within historical patterns seen for over twenty years and broader demographic trends”.