This blog relates to the recent statement from the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on reforms to the disability benefits system. I know many residents in Edinburgh South West will share my concerns about any poorly considered changes to welfare provision. This is why I visited Downing Street ahead of the announcement, hoping to shape the proposals. 

Some of what is being said in relation to the reforms is scaremongering, causing unnecessary distress to friends, family and neighbours. The reality is that the reforms announced by the government will not result in any immediate changes to anyone’s benefits, and that spending on welfare will still continue to increase, by 45% up to 2030.  

When the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) made its last set of forecasts in October it estimated that benefits for working age adults would rise from £48.5 billion in 2023-24 to £75.7bn in 2029-30. By supporting those that are able back in to work the proposed reforms aims to limit this increase to £70.7 billion. 

The Labour Government will not, however, proceed with the previous Government’s changes to the Work Capability Assessment. As a result, 370,000 people will now be eligible for the new Universal Credit (UC) health element at £50 per week, gaining £2,600 per year. Additionally, the UC Standard Allowance will be increased above inflation until 2030.

I believe in a welfare state that supports everyone when needed, protects those most in need, and ensures equality and dignity for all. There will always be individuals who cannot work, and I assure you that I will advocate for their rights to be respected. 

However, the welfare system inherited from the Conservatives is failing the very people it was designed to help and is holding our country back. Recent statistics reveal that one in every ten working-age individuals in Britain is now claiming at least one type of health or disability benefit. 

Research published in February 2025 revealed that approximately 200,000 individuals receiving health and disability benefits believe they could work immediately with the right job and support. Additionally, over 1 million more believe they could work if their health improved. This is part of the reason why the UK Government is investing in the NHS and encouraging, with funding, the SNP to do the same in Scotland. By 2029/30, it will also invest £1 billion annually in targeted and personalised support to help more disabled people and those with health conditions into employment. 

Instead of addressing the long-term needs of individuals, the Conservatives have sought to make short-term political capital by blaming hundreds of thousands of people for an unsustainable rise in benefits costs. The reality is that many sick and disabled individuals want to work, deserve the same opportunities as everyone else and are looking for support to return to work. 

Since this government took office last July, over 9.3 million people have been out of work and not seeking employment—more than the population of London. Additionally, 2.8 million people are classified as long-term sick, one of the highest rates among G7 countries. The number of individuals claiming health-related benefits without any requirement to work has surged by 800,000 since 2019/2020, a 45% increase. 

The UK is an international outlier in this regard. We are the only major economy whose employment rate has not recovered from the pandemic. Furthermore, there is a growing issue where young people are leaving school and not entering further education, apprenticeships, or work. Instead, they are being abandoned by the state, left to rely on health and disability benefits. 

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that 872,000 young people (12.2%) aged 16 to 24 are currently out of work, education, or training. Shockingly, this is nearly a quarter of a million more young people (228,000) than three years ago when the rate was 9.6%. 

The UK lags behind other OECD countries in reducing the number of young people not in education, employment, or training. The Scottish Government is not helping. A total of 1,351 pupils, enough to fill an entire high school, left school last year without a single qualification. This contributes to Scotland’s higher economic inactivity rate compared to the rest of the UK. 

It is essential that we take immediate and effective action to address this issue and support our young people to find pathways to education, employment, and training. This is a point I emphasized during my recent visit to Downing Street. 

Last week, the Government announced proposed changes in a “green paper,” a provisional document for public consultation. Full information on the green paper and the consultation can be found here: Pathways to Work: Reforming Benefits and Support to Get Britain Working Green Paper – GOV.UK. 

The green paper outlines measures to help those who can work. The Government is investing £1 billion into employment support, one of the largest investments to increase opportunities for sick and disabled people, guaranteeing high-quality and tailored support. They are also introducing a “right to try,” providing those who want to work the confidence to do so without the risk of losing out if they fall out of work. 

I want to reiterate that the majority of the proposed changes are part of an active and open consultation and are not immediate changes to the support people receive. 

The consultation is open until 30 June, and any member of the public can submit their views on the changes here, or by emailing consultation.pathwaystowork@dwp.gov.uk. 

I encourage all constituents with views on this matter to submit responses to the consultation. It is important for Members of Parliament to be guided by their constituents. 

Therefore, over the coming weeks, I will undertake to understand better the opinions of people here in Edinburgh South West and will work with experts in Parliament to quantify how these proposed changes could impact the constituency. 

To that end, I will take the following actions: 

1. Host meetings/roundtable with local stakeholders, including charities and service providers. 

2. Produce a resident survey on the issue, collecting your views and experiences. 

3. Hold a public meeting to hear residents’ views and experiences firsthand. 

4. Produce a findings summary for submission to the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and the national consultation. 

The key test for me is whether people who cannot work are protected, and those who can work are supported to do so. Analysis suggests that there will be an estimated 3.8 million families in 2029/30—some current recipients and some future recipients—who will financially gain from the proposals. However, I am concerned that the same analysis also shows that 3.2 million families—some current recipients and some future recipients—will financially lose as a result of this package. This estimate, however, does not include the impact of the £1 billion per year funding by 2029/30 for measures to support those with disabilities and long-term health conditions into employment, which are expected to mitigate the poverty impact among those it supports into work (and other measures the rising minimum wage). 

As your Member of Parliament, your wellbeing is my utmost concern. While the benefits system must be fit for the future, any change must be proportionate and compassionate. I will work hard over the coming months to ensure that proportionality and compassion are at the heart of these new reforms. 

If you require any more information about these changes or how you can contribute to the consultation, please do not hesitate to contact my office.